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How much will average per-student expenditures on course materials drop annually over the next 5 years?

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POSSIBLE ANSWERS	PREDICTED CHANCE	TODAY
0 - 4.99% (closed) » more info	63.25%
10 - 14.99% (closed) » more info	7.44%
15 - 19.99% (closed) » more info	5.94%
20% or more (closed) » more info	9.13%
5 - 9.99% (closed) » more info	14.22%

Question ends

March 30, 2013 @ 03:00am EDT

created by

gpang (all their questions)

Predictions Made

176 (Most: ames12)

Discussion

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Date

BryanAlexander • Tue Jul 19 2011 at 11:38am EDT

Here’s Amazon’s textbook rental:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.html?ie=UTF8&docId=1000702481

tigersteve • Thu Jan 13 2011 at 05:35pm EST

I am counting of Dick Durbin’s bill, (http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s111-1714)to get out of committee and finally become law sometime this year. Not holding my breath, but from predictive market wager – it is a decent bet.

geoparadigm • Mon Jun 07 2010 at 10:43pm EDT

Apple is cutting deals with publishers left and right. Textbooks RIP. Ipad will be the future textbook, and the costs of content will be reduced to reasonable levels (think $.99 cent songs, how much for a chapter?). Faculty will have much greater control over exactly what is included for course readings, and they will be able to put materials together, with open content, multimedia, video, etc, for consumption on the Ipad. Now that newspapers are gone, academic textbooks is the next big dated market to fall.

geoparadigm • Sat Aug 21 2010 at 12:28am EDT

See, I told you so….http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703791804575439522126865254.html

BryanAlexander • Mon Apr 19 2010 at 08:44pm EDT

There seems to be a good deal of anxiety about open (free) content this week.

redwards7 • Thu Feb 04 2010 at 07:49pm EST

I think that course materials will remain essentially flat over the next five years. I see more rental models kicking in, but actually overall student spending will likely be at the level it is today. Open source, open access materials will supplement and in a few cases replace paid materials, but that will in many cases free up faculty members to assign different paid materials (vs. relying on free materials exclusively). At least this is my sense. Also, rulings like the UCLA film online case remind faculty members the risk of trying to avoid paid content and their potential risk of litigation. Sad, but true.

bkrusniak • Thu Nov 12 2009 at 05:50pm EST

Course material costs will drop before tuition does and cost pressures will mount over the next 5 years.

Does anyone have a link to the current per student expenditures for course materials from the College Board?

jansson • Thu Nov 12 2009 at 06:36pm EST

The Chronicle Almanac from 2008-2009 reported the average cost of “books and supplies” at a 4-year private college as $1054. If accurate, that is still pretty small – less than 3% of total costs (I can’t tell if the overall annual pricetag of $37K for the average 4yr private institution accounts for discounting – either way it’s not much by comparison).

I agree that this seems an easier place to save in the short run. It will require many curricular adjustments, but it culturally in line with the desire for more openness in scholarly communications and elsewhere.

BryanAlexander • Fri Nov 13 2009 at 10:39am EST

Maybe we’ve reached a tipping point for open content. Consider:
1) economic crisis
2) steady growth in social media production
3) " " " institutional programs (ex: MIT’s OCW)
4) incremental acceptance of Web content for .edu purposes

Put ’em together, and we might see course expenditures stablize, or
even drop.

1 person likes this

BryanAlexander • Sat Apr 19 2008 at 10:36am EDT

The new publishers’ suit against Georgia Tech could nudge some campuses towards free, open content, away from ereserves perceived as increasingly risky.

joemurphy • Mon Aug 25 2008 at 11:16am EDT

But the suit against Georgia Tech could also nudge campuses into more cautious interpretations of fair use, driving faculty back toward the bookstores for content.

BryanAlexander • Wed Aug 27 2008 at 08:46pm EDT

True. Perhaps a split, then, heading in both directions at the same time?

joemurphy • Fri Sep 05 2008 at 02:27pm EDT

My pessimistic guess is a higher price per book, but fewer purchased books per course on average.

Reasons for Prediction

"I have no idea what I am doing"
0 - 4.99%
July 10, 2009 @ 04:36pm EDT

"new forms of digital distribution will keep prices about the same"
0 - 4.99%
November 20, 2009 @ 10:21am EST

"As technology gets cheaper new things make it to market to fill that void"
0 - 4.99%
June 01, 2010 @ 08:45am EDT

"The average per pupil spending will continue to decrease. When our economy begins to rise, I think the per pupil expenditures will too."
0 - 4.99%
July 07, 2010 @ 12:22am EDT

"It will be more, I'm sure, not less."
0 - 4.99%
July 08, 2010 @ 10:32pm EDT

"I don't think materials will go down at all, with technology continuing to evolve, costs will probably go up"
0 - 4.99%
July 09, 2010 @ 12:10pm EDT

"Instructors using Flatworld free online textbooks and students getting savvy on costs using rental books will drop expenditures."
0 - 4.99%
October 09, 2010 @ 04:32pm EDT

"Costs will not fall in this economic climate. "
0 - 4.99%
January 03, 2011 @ 12:14pm EST

"I don't see this shifting much for more than a handful of forward-thinking schools in the next 5 years, unfortunately."
0 - 4.99%
March 08, 2011 @ 08:51pm EST

"Open content adoption is too slow. Now it's being monetized by Murdoch etc."
0 - 4.99%
July 05, 2011 @ 01:34pm EDT

"Schools are continually looking toward free online resources to meet state standards rather than purchasing expensive textbooks."
0 - 4.99%
July 09, 2011 @ 06:41pm EDT

"material requirements may become less as online access increases, but there are still IT fees that will be attached. "
0 - 4.99%
July 11, 2011 @ 01:20am EDT

"As the cost of technology decreases the cost of older materials (namely textbooks) increases disproportionately."
0 - 4.99%
July 11, 2011 @ 01:27am EDT

"While textbook expeditures may drop, it will probably be replaced with expensive software."
0 - 4.99%
July 10, 2012 @ 04:55pm EDT

"Costs of technology will go down, so will the expendatures. "
5 - 9.99%
August 28, 2008 @ 04:10pm EDT

"ebooks, rising tuition costs, and a sluggish economy will force course material expenditures down"
5 - 9.99%
June 12, 2009 @ 09:07am EDT

"Sounds like a good idea."
5 - 9.99%
July 07, 2009 @ 05:02pm EDT

"Digital texts delivered via Kindle, etc. will be cheaper and are set to explode..."
5 - 9.99%
July 11, 2009 @ 02:49am EDT

"The movement for open content seems to be persisting."
5 - 9.99%
May 24, 2010 @ 02:09pm EDT

"Course material costs are plummeting as paper distribution goes away. Although only part will be passed on, I predict an over 25% drop."
5 - 9.99%
December 23, 2010 @ 10:03am EST

"Textbook expenditures will drop as teachers transition to ebooks."
5 - 9.99%
July 08, 2011 @ 10:23am EDT

"Amazon is making moves in textbooks, which should mean cost cut."
5 - 9.99%
July 19, 2011 @ 11:38am EDT

"because"
5 - 9.99%
February 28, 2012 @ 10:33pm EST

"Ipad is the textbook publishing industry killer. Between this and Open Content, fees will be reduced by 10-14.99% a year."
10 - 14.99%
June 07, 2010 @ 10:32pm EDT

"Xplana sees a tipping point ahead, http://blog.xplana.com/reports/digital-textbooks-reach-the-tipping-point-in-the-u-s-higher-education-a-re"
10 - 14.99%
March 17, 2011 @ 12:35pm EDT

"In this economic climate, students are refusing to purchase course texts. Instructors are referring to online, open access content."
10 - 14.99%
July 06, 2011 @ 02:59am EDT

"eBooks are less expensive"
10 - 14.99%
July 14, 2012 @ 06:22pm EDT

"Seems to be the trend so far but completely an assumption on my part."
15 - 19.99%
January 06, 2013 @ 11:17pm EST

"Within 5 years, nearly 50% of textbooks will be delivered digitally, and alternatives will be available, reducing the cost of the remaining."
20% or more
January 07, 2011 @ 07:37pm EST

price chart

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Background information

As faculty shift to online, open access materials, students’ financial outlay for course materials should drop. This market gives traders in the NITLE Technology Futures Market (TFM) an opportunity to consider the likelihood and shape of such a trend. The market will be validated against reports by the College Board on average per-student expenditures for course materials at four-year private colleges.

N.B. Although we’ve indicated that this market will close on March 30, 2013, please note that it may be closed at any time at the discretion of the TFM manager.

More information about the possible answers

0 - 4.99%

Expenditures will drop less than 5% annually over the next 5 years.

10 - 14.99%

Expenditures will drop at least 10% but less than 15% annually over the next 5 years.

15 - 19.99%

Expenditures will drop at least 15% but less than 20% annually over the next 5 years.

20% or more

Expenditures will drop at least 20% annually over the next 5 years, perhaps more.

5 - 9.99%

Expenditures will drop at least 5% but less than 10% annually over the next 5 years.