NITLE Prediction Markets

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How much will average per-student expenditures on course materials drop annually over the next 5 years?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS PREDICTED CHANCE TODAY
63.25%
7.44%
5.94%
9.13%
14.22%

Question ends

March 30, 2013 @ 02:00am CDT
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Predictions Made

176 (Most: ames12)
Discussion

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BryanAlexander   •   Tue Jul 19 2011 at 10:38am CDT
tigersteve   •   Thu Jan 13 2011 at 04:35pm CST
I am counting of Dick Durbin’s bill, (http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s111-1714)to get out of committee and finally become law sometime this year. Not holding my breath, but from predictive market wager – it is a decent bet.
AlexChaucer   •   Mon Jun 07 2010 at 09:43pm CDT
Apple is cutting deals with publishers left and right. Textbooks RIP. Ipad will be the future textbook, and the costs of content will be reduced to reasonable levels (think $.99 cent songs, how much for a chapter?). Faculty will have much greater control over exactly what is included for course readings, and they will be able to put materials together, with open content, multimedia, video, etc, for consumption on the Ipad. Now that newspapers are gone, academic textbooks is the next big dated market to fall.
AlexChaucer   •   Fri Aug 20 2010 at 11:28pm CDT
BryanAlexander   •   Mon Apr 19 2010 at 07:44pm CDT
There seems to be a good deal of anxiety about open (free) content this week.
redwards7   •   Thu Feb 04 2010 at 06:49pm CST
I think that course materials will remain essentially flat over the next five years. I see more rental models kicking in, but actually overall student spending will likely be at the level it is today. Open source, open access materials will supplement and in a few cases replace paid materials, but that will in many cases free up faculty members to assign different paid materials (vs. relying on free materials exclusively). At least this is my sense. Also, rulings like the UCLA film online case remind faculty members the risk of trying to avoid paid content and their potential risk of litigation. Sad, but true.
bkrusniak   •   Thu Nov 12 2009 at 04:50pm CST
Course material costs will drop before tuition does and cost pressures will mount over the next 5 years.

Does anyone have a link to the current per student expenditures for course materials from the College Board?

jansson   •   Thu Nov 12 2009 at 05:36pm CST
The Chronicle Almanac from 2008-2009 reported the average cost of “books and supplies” at a 4-year private college as $1054. If accurate, that is still pretty small – less than 3% of total costs (I can’t tell if the overall annual pricetag of $37K for the average 4yr private institution accounts for discounting – either way it’s not much by comparison).

I agree that this seems an easier place to save in the short run. It will require many curricular adjustments, but it culturally in line with the desire for more openness in scholarly communications and elsewhere.

BryanAlexander   •   Fri Nov 13 2009 at 09:39am CST
Maybe we’ve reached a tipping point for open content. Consider:
1) economic crisis
2) steady growth in social media production
3) " " " institutional programs (ex: MIT’s OCW)
4) incremental acceptance of Web content for .edu purposes

Put ’em together, and we might see course expenditures stablize, or
even drop.

BryanAlexander   •   Sat Apr 19 2008 at 09:36am CDT
The new publishers’ suit against Georgia Tech could nudge some campuses towards free, open content, away from ereserves perceived as increasingly risky.
joemurphy   •   Mon Aug 25 2008 at 10:16am CDT
But the suit against Georgia Tech could also nudge campuses into more cautious interpretations of fair use, driving faculty back toward the bookstores for content.
BryanAlexander   •   Wed Aug 27 2008 at 07:46pm CDT
True. Perhaps a split, then, heading in both directions at the same time?
joemurphy   •   Fri Sep 05 2008 at 01:27pm CDT
My pessimistic guess is a higher price per book, but fewer purchased books per course on average.

Reasons for Prediction

"I have no idea what I am doing"
0 - 4.99%
July 10, 2009 @ 03:36pm CDT

"new forms of digital distribution will keep prices about the same"
0 - 4.99%
November 20, 2009 @ 09:21am CST

"As technology gets cheaper new things make it to market to fill that void"
0 - 4.99%
June 01, 2010 @ 07:45am CDT

"The average per pupil spending will continue to decrease. When our economy begins to rise, I think the per pupil expenditures will too."
0 - 4.99%
July 06, 2010 @ 11:22pm CDT

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historical trend

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More information about the possible answers

0 - 4.99%

10 - 14.99%

15 - 19.99%

20% or more

5 - 9.99%