In the next 3 years, will technology be instrumental to the success of inter-institutional collaboration? (NITLE Prediction Markets)

In the next 3 years, will technology be instrumental to the success of inter-institutional collaboration?

Question will be closed on: 12/31/08 @ 11:59 PM PST

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Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.

PREDICTIONS	CURRENT VALUE	TODAY
Yes	$81.34	(closed)

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Funkypants | September 04, 2008 @ 05:25 AM PDT

Define “instrumental.” If you mean “as an instrument or tool” then yes, because that is what technology is. But then the question is tautological and meaningless. If you mean “independently causal” or “fundamentally important” then it becomes more complicated.

Todd Kelley | September 04, 2008 @ 11:54 AM PDT

Thanks Funkypants – A good question. Your second interpretation is very close to the mark with “independently causal” or “fundamentally important.” And yes – that is somewhat complicated. Will technology such as multipoint interactive videoconferencing encourage institutions to communicate more regularly and in more meaningful ways? Will collaborative projects develop into community efforts due to new technological capabilities?

Funkypants | September 04, 2008 @ 04:40 PM PDT

Then I think the participants in this market – mostly technological enthusiasts – are likely to overpredict technology’s effects on human behavior and underpredict other factors such as politics, economics, habits, laziness etc.

Todd Kelley | September 04, 2008 @ 05:25 PM PDT

Possibly – but at the same time organizational inertia COULD temper their entusiasm ;-)

BryanAlexander | September 07, 2008 @ 12:12 PM PDT

There’s a big difference between emerging and old technologies. Do we think of email, for example, when we contemplate technology for collaboration?

Funkypants | September 07, 2008 @ 08:20 PM PDT

If it comes to that, ink, telephones, and the wheel are all technologies that are instrumental now to collaboration and will be so until the collapse of civilization. The question is underspecified. Perhaps it should be re-stated?

BryanAlexander | September 09, 2008 @ 11:52 AM PDT

I think “digital” was implicit in “technology”, here. That’s a bit rough-edged, since it doesn’t apply to some very digital technologies, like many phones, and television.

Good point. Restating’s a good idea.

BryanAlexander | October 25, 2008 @ 06:35 AM PDT

The rise of cloud computing, and the worsening economy, suggest a driver for more interinstitutional technology collaboration.

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Background information

This market give traders in the NITLE Technology Futures Market (TFM) the opportunity to consider how new alliances and strengthened partnerships will develop among liberal arts institutions over the next three years. The market question assumes that liberal arts institutions will increasingly rely upon collaboration to achieve their goals and to assure the visibility of their sector in higher education. Will technology play an instrumental role in the success of these efforts?

N.B. Although we’ve indicated that this market will close on December 31, 2008, please note that it may be closed at any time at the discretion of the TFM manager.