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When will Facebook reach 1 billion users? or will it?

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POSSIBLE ANSWERS	PREDICTED CHANCE	TODAY
September 2011 (closed) » more info	PREDICTED 6.91%	ACTUAL 0.00%
January 2012 (closed) » more info	PREDICTED 8.14%	ACTUAL 0.00%
July 2012 (closed)	PREDICTED 23.32%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Janury 2013 (closed)	PREDICTED 29.17%	ACTUAL 100.00%
July 2013 (closed)	PREDICTED 8.51%	ACTUAL 0.00%
never (closed) » more info	PREDICTED 13.37%	ACTUAL 0.00%
After July 2013 (closed) » more info	PREDICTED 10.57%	ACTUAL 0.00%

Question ends

July 31, 2013 @ 12:45pm EDT

created by

BryanAlexander (all their questions)

Predictions Made

236 (Most: s.andrews)

Discussion

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Date

gsdiment • Thu Oct 04 2012 at 09:12am EDT

The winning answer has to be January 2013. It didn’t get there by July 2012, so Jan 2013 is the next available choice.

BryanAlexander • Thu Oct 04 2012 at 01:25pm EDT

That’s persuasive. No other option would describe reality.

geoparadigm • Thu Oct 04 2012 at 09:07am EDT

Just pondering this. Since October 2012 is not an option, what happens next? I think in these markets it’s a good idea to cover all possible scenarios in the prediction solutions, so that there always is a definite answer, or at least an opportunity for a clear “correct” prediction. Fun stuff!

BryanAlexander • Thu Oct 04 2012 at 08:23am EDT

Facebook reached one billion today, friends.
http://newsroom.fb.com/News/One-Billion-People-on-Facebook-1c9.aspx
Which answer was closest?

bryantt • Tue Apr 24 2012 at 03:46pm EDT

It took 5 months to add the last 100 million, http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/facebook_tops_900_million_users_but_penetration_ra.php

BryanAlexander • Mon Apr 23 2012 at 07:02pm EDT

901 million users now, claims Facebook:
http://techcrunch.com/2012/04/23/facebooks-amended-s-1-500-million-mobile-users-paid-300m-cash-23-million-shares-for-instagram/

BryanAlexander • Sat Jan 21 2012 at 12:37pm EST

Over 800 million now.
https://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics

s.andrews • Sun Jan 22 2012 at 04:12pm EST

In that case, it’s right on target (if it continues in a linear fashion) for Jan. 2013. Big IF of course, but…

http://bit.ly/1113fb1b

BryanAlexander • Thu Jan 26 2012 at 10:18am EST

Nice one. Where did you make this?

s.andrews • Thu Jan 26 2012 at 10:43am EST

Excel, I think. It’s been a while, but that’s the only way I know to make graphs so…

BryanAlexander • Thu Jan 26 2012 at 11:00am EST

That works. Thanks.

Josef Biesenberger • Sat Nov 05 2011 at 03:37pm EDT

2 comments:
A) The subject should read more precise referring to “active users” instead of “users”
B) September 11 is passed: Why is this answer still active/selectable ?

BryanAlexander • Thu Jan 26 2012 at 10:17am EST

Good catch. Let me see if I can make it dormant.

s.andrews • Tue Sep 27 2011 at 10:55am EDT

Google plus opened to everyone last week: traffic on the site went up 1269%. What does that mean for FB?

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/google_plus_traffic_went_up_1269_last_week.php

1 person likes this

s.andrews • Mon Oct 10 2011 at 06:00pm EDT

Google plus traffic back down to 60% below this

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/google_plus_traffic_drops_1269_gains_erased.php

And evidently FB is up to 800 million. Not that this is a two horse race or anything: just some new data points.

BryanAlexander • Sat Oct 01 2011 at 08:22pm EDT

It could flatten out FB growth.

s.andrews • Wed Sep 14 2011 at 10:57pm EDT

Not an increase in user count, but the delay in IPO doesn’t seem to be about commercial value overall.

http://bit.ly/paNcAJ

“Americans spent a total of 53.5 billion minutes on Facebook in May, according to a new Nielsen study released Monday.

In fact, the media-measurement firm’s new report on social networking found that Americans spent more time on Facebook than on any other website – and it wasn’t even close. Yahoo was second with 17.2 billion minutes in May and Google ranked third at 12.5 billion minutes."

BryanAlexander • Thu Sep 15 2011 at 03:14pm EDT

Perhaps FB will plateau in user #s, but increase the amount of time they spend.

bryantt • Fri Sep 09 2011 at 08:48am EDT

The Guardian speculates that Facebook’s unique user count is in trouble. http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/pda/2011/sep/08/facebook-revenues-ipo

bryantt • Wed Jul 06 2011 at 04:12pm EDT

They’ve reached 750 Million http://thenextweb.com/facebook/2011/07/06/facebook-confirms-750-million-users-sharing-4-billion-items-daily

joebenfield • Wed Jul 06 2011 at 04:52pm EDT

“Zuckerberg believes that the next 5 years will be about what you can build on top of an ecosystem that houses 750 million people, rather than the importance being in the number itself”

Sounds like the makings for a good markets question somewhere in there.

BryanAlexander • Wed Jul 06 2011 at 05:16pm EDT

Do you think they’re shying away from the billion? Sounds like it.

joebenfield • Wed Jul 06 2011 at 05:25pm EDT

I’m not sure, but that crossed my mind. The comparison to Apple in the TNW article is interesting, as Apple eventually went for the higher income crowd rather than ubiquity (MS’s approach) with their computers. Maybe FB will cater to those who are more likely to pay for layers on top of the social network? That said, 1B could still be in the cards.

geoparadigm • Fri Jul 01 2011 at 04:13pm EDT

What if they hit one billion users, but it takes a longer time? Should there be a “sometime beyond July 2013” option?

Also, what do you think the Google+ project impact will be on this market?

joebenfield • Fri Jul 01 2011 at 06:19pm EDT

This is what I meant by my comment at the top. Would be great to have that option.

BryanAlexander • Fri Jul 01 2011 at 05:19pm EDT

Beyond 2013: interesting thought. We should have put that in. Let me see if I can add it.

Google+ is aimed squarely at FB. If it succeeds, points to “never”, perhaps.

BryanAlexander • Thu Jun 16 2011 at 03:57pm EDT

Some signs of a stall: US in negative growth, other countries hitting what might be a ceiling, 50%:
http://www.slate.com/id/2296932/

BryanAlexander • Sat Jun 18 2011 at 02:26pm EDT

And Canadian users are dropping: http://www.michaelgeist.ca/content/view/5856/196/

BryanAlexander • Thu Jun 16 2011 at 03:59pm EDT

Excerpt: “Facebook is now experiencing something unprecedented in the short history of social networking—it has captured every plausible user in several countries, and the only people who are left are folks without Internet access, people who do have access but don’t spend a lot of leisure time online, and the few lonely die-hards who swear they’ll never join the site”

BryanAlexander • Fri May 27 2011 at 09:54am EDT

Here’s one datapoint for a plateau:
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2011/05/facebook-finally-plateaus-in-2011/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

bryantt • Wed Apr 27 2011 at 08:38am EDT

I’m guessing they’d have to crack the Chinese market in a major way to reach a billion in two years. I don’t see that happening.

1 person likes this

joebenfield • Tue Apr 26 2011 at 04:09pm EDT

I assume if we don’t think this will happen by July 2013 then we should just buy never? ;) Of course, maybe you know something about the world ending before Aug. 1 2013 that I don’t!?

BryanAlexander • Tue Apr 26 2011 at 05:41pm EDT

Heh – my lips are sealed.
But, seriously, think of it this way: Facebook’s growth curve could flatten out a bit. Still rising, just not as rapidly. Different demographics adopt more slowly, new arrivals are balanced by exits, etc.

joebenfield • Tue Apr 26 2011 at 06:01pm EDT

Oh, I definitely expect it to flatten out and to lose users, etc… I was just thinking of (presumably) all of the time between July 2013 and “never” during which it could hit 1B. If I think it would happen post-July 2013, my only option is never – unless we mean July 2013 or later.

Sorry – as you can tell, I’m a stickler for question clarity ;)

BryanAlexander • Wed Jul 06 2011 at 05:09pm EDT

Which we love. You clarify not only questions, but thinking.

Reasons for Prediction

"I think facebook needs to make some privacy changes or another social network will offer one that people change to."
January 2012
July 09, 2011 @ 06:36pm EDT

"because its already passed"
January 2012
June 18, 2012 @ 04:47am EDT

"Several huge corporations moving to block: MS (Skype), Google."
never
May 13, 2011 @ 10:21am EDT

"Perhaps FB has passed the hype peak, and is now in a plateu of productivity."
never
May 27, 2011 @ 09:54am EDT

"Signs of a stall in the US."
never
June 16, 2011 @ 03:57pm EDT

"Facebook may have reached its peak."
never
July 06, 2011 @ 03:01am EDT

"Google Plus will kill Facebook's market over time. As it gains strength, it precludes the billion mark."
never
August 01, 2011 @ 01:44pm EDT

"G+ has won a sizable amount of users. That's a crimp."
never
August 01, 2011 @ 05:25pm EDT

"Google's G+ success seems durable, and thieves #s from FB."
never
August 17, 2011 @ 01:31pm EDT

"750 million now. Feels like a plateau coming."
never
August 26, 2011 @ 03:37pm EDT

"Influenced by Bryant's news story."
never
September 12, 2011 @ 06:18pm EDT

"There are not enough people on the planet with access to the internet, for such a large portion of the human population to sign up."
never
December 28, 2011 @ 11:02pm EST

"China will push it over."
July 2012
April 27, 2011 @ 11:15am EDT

"If it continues on it's current trajectory...."
July 2012
July 06, 2011 @ 05:10pm EDT

"Analising http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?timeline"
July 2012
November 05, 2011 @ 03:13pm EDT

"Trajectory and global financial conditions"
July 2012
January 24, 2012 @ 07:27pm EST

"with instagram they brought aboard potentially 100 MM; and it will match IPO"
July 2012
April 29, 2012 @ 11:25am EDT

"More teachers will be using for class so many more students will be signing up for accounts."
Janury 2013
July 10, 2011 @ 01:19pm EDT

"I'm seeing lots of non-geeks remaining on FB. So a slow but steady growth curve."
Janury 2013
August 22, 2011 @ 04:57pm EDT

"I made this rough graph from the FB page and it seems pretty likely scenario http://bit.ly/1113fb1b"
Janury 2013
September 07, 2011 @ 04:45pm EDT

"Facebook has grown exponentially in the last few years. It wouldn't take much for the millions of users to turn into billions of users."
Janury 2013
October 09, 2011 @ 12:38am EDT

"FB says >800 mil now, suggesting a slower but steady growth curve. https://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics "
Janury 2013
November 03, 2011 @ 03:23pm EDT

"Its only been getting more and more popular and with all the other social media giants connected to it and nothing (within the next year)to challenge it Facebook will only see growth"
Janury 2013
August 02, 2012 @ 08:03pm EDT

"just reached 1billion"
Janury 2013
October 04, 2012 @ 07:14am EDT

"reason is the trend of user grow up"
July 2013
February 04, 2012 @ 04:34am EST

"FB seems to be surviving G+."
September 2011
July 12, 2011 @ 03:25pm EDT

"be prepared to be surprised"
September 2011
July 23, 2011 @ 12:45am EDT

"why not?"
September 2011
April 19, 2012 @ 01:37pm EDT

"I think as users become more comfortable with social networking, they will move to spin-offs that are more targeted to their interests."
After July 2013
July 08, 2011 @ 10:31am EDT

"FB just reached 1billion monthly users"
After July 2013
October 04, 2012 @ 07:14am EDT

price chart

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Background information

Facebook’s growth has been enormous. From a single-campus bit of social software it has grown to hundreds of millions of users, worldwide, becoming the world’s largest social network.

What next?

We’re picking the great round one billion figure as a milestone, a hook for our collective imaginations. The figure and its implications could well take our breath away… and yet, could it happen?

Facebook’s official timeline shows an impressive upward arc:

2008 December over 100 million active users
2009 January 150 million active users
2009 July 250 million active users
2009 September 300 million active users
2009 December 350 million active users
2010 February 400 million active users
2010 July 500 million active users

In 2009 this prediction market’s players accuratedly predicted one of these milestones. Let’s see how we do this time!

The idea comes from George Boretos on LinkedIn,

More information about the possible answers

September 2011

Please don’t buy or sell this one, since it’s now in the past.

January 2012

Facebook will crack 1 billion around 1 January 2012.

never

Although Facebook’s growth has been vast, it’s going to reach an upper bound in the n hundreds of millions, then either plateau or decline.

After July 2013

Facebook reaches one billion users, but far down the road: late 2013 or beyond. (thanks to Joe Benfield and geoparadigm for the idea)