NITLE Prediction Markets

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When will Facebook reach 1 billion users? or will it?


Question ends

July 31, 2013 @ 11:45am CDT

Predictions Made

236 (Most: s.andrews)

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gsdiment   •   Thu Oct 04 2012 at 08:12am CDT
The winning answer has to be January 2013. It didn’t get there by July 2012, so Jan 2013 is the next available choice.
BryanAlexander   •   Thu Oct 04 2012 at 12:25pm CDT
That’s persuasive. No other option would describe reality.
AlexChaucer   •   Thu Oct 04 2012 at 08:07am CDT
Just pondering this. Since October 2012 is not an option, what happens next? I think in these markets it’s a good idea to cover all possible scenarios in the prediction solutions, so that there always is a definite answer, or at least an opportunity for a clear “correct” prediction. Fun stuff!
BryanAlexander   •   Thu Oct 04 2012 at 07:23am CDT
Facebook reached one billion today, friends.
Which answer was closest?
bryantt   •   Tue Apr 24 2012 at 02:46pm CDT
BryanAlexander   •   Mon Apr 23 2012 at 06:02pm CDT
BryanAlexander   •   Sat Jan 21 2012 at 11:37am CST
s.andrews   •   Sun Jan 22 2012 at 03:12pm CST
In that case, it’s right on target (if it continues in a linear fashion) for Jan. 2013. Big IF of course, but…

BryanAlexander   •   Thu Jan 26 2012 at 09:18am CST
Nice one. Where did you make this?
s.andrews   •   Thu Jan 26 2012 at 09:43am CST
Excel, I think. It’s been a while, but that’s the only way I know to make graphs so…
BryanAlexander   •   Thu Jan 26 2012 at 10:00am CST
That works. Thanks.
Josef Biesenberger   •   Sat Nov 05 2011 at 02:37pm CDT
A) The subject should read more precise referring to “active users” instead of “users”
B) September 11 is passed: Why is this answer still active/selectable ?
BryanAlexander   •   Thu Jan 26 2012 at 09:17am CST
Good catch. Let me see if I can make it dormant.
s.andrews   •   Tue Sep 27 2011 at 09:55am CDT
Google plus opened to everyone last week: traffic on the site went up 1269%. What does that mean for FB?

s.andrews   •   Mon Oct 10 2011 at 05:00pm CDT
Google plus traffic back down to 60% below this

And evidently FB is up to 800 million. Not that this is a two horse race or anything: just some new data points.

BryanAlexander   •   Sat Oct 01 2011 at 07:22pm CDT
It could flatten out FB growth.
s.andrews   •   Wed Sep 14 2011 at 09:57pm CDT
Not an increase in user count, but the delay in IPO doesn’t seem to be about commercial value overall.

“Americans spent a total of 53.5 billion minutes on Facebook in May, according to a new Nielsen study released Monday.

In fact, the media-measurement firm’s new report on social networking found that Americans spent more time on Facebook than on any other website – and it wasn’t even close. Yahoo was second with 17.2 billion minutes in May and Google ranked third at 12.5 billion minutes."

BryanAlexander   •   Thu Sep 15 2011 at 02:14pm CDT
Perhaps FB will plateau in user #s, but increase the amount of time they spend.
bryantt   •   Fri Sep 09 2011 at 07:48am CDT
The Guardian speculates that Facebook’s unique user count is in trouble.
bryantt   •   Wed Jul 06 2011 at 03:12pm CDT
joebenfield   •   Wed Jul 06 2011 at 03:52pm CDT
“Zuckerberg believes that the next 5 years will be about what you can build on top of an ecosystem that houses 750 million people, rather than the importance being in the number itself”

Sounds like the makings for a good markets question somewhere in there.

BryanAlexander   •   Wed Jul 06 2011 at 04:16pm CDT
Do you think they’re shying away from the billion? Sounds like it.
joebenfield   •   Wed Jul 06 2011 at 04:25pm CDT
I’m not sure, but that crossed my mind. The comparison to Apple in the TNW article is interesting, as Apple eventually went for the higher income crowd rather than ubiquity (MS’s approach) with their computers. Maybe FB will cater to those who are more likely to pay for layers on top of the social network? That said, 1B could still be in the cards.
AlexChaucer   •   Fri Jul 01 2011 at 03:13pm CDT
What if they hit one billion users, but it takes a longer time? Should there be a “sometime beyond July 2013” option?

Also, what do you think the Google+ project impact will be on this market?

joebenfield   •   Fri Jul 01 2011 at 05:19pm CDT
This is what I meant by my comment at the top. Would be great to have that option.
BryanAlexander   •   Fri Jul 01 2011 at 04:19pm CDT
Beyond 2013: interesting thought. We should have put that in. Let me see if I can add it.

Google+ is aimed squarely at FB. If it succeeds, points to “never”, perhaps.

BryanAlexander   •   Thu Jun 16 2011 at 02:57pm CDT
Some signs of a stall: US in negative growth, other countries hitting what might be a ceiling, 50%:
BryanAlexander   •   Sat Jun 18 2011 at 01:26pm CDT
And Canadian users are dropping:
BryanAlexander   •   Thu Jun 16 2011 at 02:59pm CDT
Excerpt: “Facebook is now experiencing something unprecedented in the short history of social networking—it has captured every plausible user in several countries, and the only people who are left are folks without Internet access, people who do have access but don’t spend a lot of leisure time online, and the few lonely die-hards who swear they’ll never join the site”
BryanAlexander   •   Fri May 27 2011 at 08:54am CDT
bryantt   •   Wed Apr 27 2011 at 07:38am CDT
I’m guessing they’d have to crack the Chinese market in a major way to reach a billion in two years. I don’t see that happening.
joebenfield   •   Tue Apr 26 2011 at 03:09pm CDT
I assume if we don’t think this will happen by July 2013 then we should just buy never? ;) Of course, maybe you know something about the world ending before Aug. 1 2013 that I don’t!?
BryanAlexander   •   Tue Apr 26 2011 at 04:41pm CDT
Heh – my lips are sealed.
But, seriously, think of it this way: Facebook’s growth curve could flatten out a bit. Still rising, just not as rapidly. Different demographics adopt more slowly, new arrivals are balanced by exits, etc.
joebenfield   •   Tue Apr 26 2011 at 05:01pm CDT
Oh, I definitely expect it to flatten out and to lose users, etc… I was just thinking of (presumably) all of the time between July 2013 and “never” during which it could hit 1B. If I think it would happen post-July 2013, my only option is never – unless we mean July 2013 or later.

Sorry – as you can tell, I’m a stickler for question clarity ;)

BryanAlexander   •   Wed Jul 06 2011 at 04:09pm CDT
Which we love. You clarify not only questions, but thinking.

Reasons for Prediction

"I think facebook needs to make some privacy changes or another social network will offer one that people change to."
January 2012
July 09, 2011 @ 05:36pm CDT

"because its already passed"
January 2012
June 18, 2012 @ 03:47am CDT

"Several huge corporations moving to block: MS (Skype), Google."
May 13, 2011 @ 09:21am CDT

"Perhaps FB has passed the hype peak, and is now in a plateu of productivity."
May 27, 2011 @ 08:54am CDT

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September 2011

January 2012


After July 2013